Attacco iraniano su Israele: conseguenze, reazioni, scenari🗞️ Rassegna del 15/04/2024

Israele

Israele - Gaza:

(Reuters) Hamas rejects Israel's ceasefire response, sticks to main demands

• The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas has rejected an Israeli ceasefire proposal, saying on Saturday it had handed to mediators in Egypt and Qatar its response to the proposal it had received last Monday.
• "We.. reaffirm our adherence to our demands and the national demands of our people; with a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation army from the entire Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced to their areas and places of residence, intensification of the entry of relief and aid, and the start of reconstruction," the Islamist faction said.
• Hamas said on Saturday it was ready to conclude a prisoners-for-hostages swap deal with Israel that would see the release of 133 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza in return for hundreds of Palestinians jailed in Israel.
• There was no official Israeli comment on Hamas’ response.
• The Hamas statement came a few days after Israel killed several members of the family of the group's chief Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza, raising fears among the families of hostages that it would derail efforts to secure their release from Gaza.

Israele - Iran:

(Reurers) Iran launches drone attack at Israel, expected to unfold 'over hours'

• Two security sources in Iraq said dozens of drones had been spotted flying from Iran toward Israel over Iraqi airspace in what Iranian Press TV called "extensive drone strikes" by the Revolutionary Guards.
• Iran has vowed retaliation for what it called an Israeli strike on its Damascus consulate on April 1 that killed seven Revolutionary Guards officers including two senior commanders. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the attack.
• Israel and neighbouring Jordan, which lies between Iraq and Israel, said they were closing their airspace on Saturday night.
• Earlier on Saturday, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported that a Guards helicopter had boarded and taken into Iranian waters the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries.
• MSC, which operates the Aries, confirmed that Iran had seized the ship and said it was working "with the relevant authorities" for its safe return and the wellbeing of its 25 crew.
• MSC leases the Aries from Gortal Shipping, an affiliate of Zodiac Maritime, Zodiac said in a statement, adding that MSC is responsible for all the vessel's activities. Zodiac is partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.

(New York Times) Israel’s possible response to Iran brings a moment of great risk.

• Iran has retaliated directly against Israel for the killings of its senior generals in Damascus, with an onslaught of more than 300 drones and missiles aimed at restoring its credibility and deterrence, officials and analysts say.
• Has Iran’s attack been enough to satisfy its calls for revenge? Or given the relatively paltry results — almost all the drones and missiles were intercepted by Israel and the United States — will it feel the need to strike again? And will Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, see the strong performance by his country’s air defenses, in cooperation with allies, as a sufficient response? Or will he choose to escalate further with an attack on Iran itself?
• For years Iran took blow after blow from Israel both at home and in the region: assassinations of its nuclear scientists and military commanders, explosions at its nuclear and military bases, cyber hacks, intelligence infiltrations and an embarrassing theft of nuclear documents.
• Iran had been criticized internally and by some senior officers in proxy groups like Hezbollah for its cautious posture during the war in Gaza, especially in its refusal to do more to support Hamas and in its restraint of Hezbollah, its close ally in southern Lebanon, Ms. Vakil said. With the attacks on Saturday, “I think Tehran saw a need to draw this red line and make it clear to Israel that Iran does have red lines and would not continue to tolerate the slow degradation of its position,” she said.

(New York Times) Leaders in Europe and the Middle East call for restraint after the attack.

• Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Union’s executive bodyarm called the Iranian drone and missile attack, which was largely intercepted by Israel and its allies, “unjustifiable.”
• Foreign ministries across the Arab world, including in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, expressed concern that the Iranian attack could escalate into a broader regional war.
• Saudi Arabia called on the United Nations Security Council, which was scheduled to hold an emergency meeting Sunday on the crisis, to “fulfill its responsibility in maintaining international peace.”
• Jordan, while calling for calm, also confirmed its participation in the military response to the attack, which it cast as a defense of its sovereign airspace. The kingdom signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994.
• In a statement, Jordan’s cabinet said its armed forces had shot down multiple aircraft and missiles in the skies over the country, which is sandwiched between Iraq, Syria, Israel and Saudi Arabia. It vowed to defend itself against any future incursions.

Cisgiordania:

(New York Times)Death of 14-year-old Ignites More Violence in West Bank

• Binyamin Achimair, 14, had left a farming settlement in the West Bank to herd sheep on Friday morning, but never returned, according to the Israeli police. The Israeli forces later found his corpse, and the military said, without providing evidence, that he had been “murdered in a terrorist attack.”
• After Binyamin’s disappearance on Friday, armed Israeli settlers stormed a Palestinian village near Ramallah, torching several buildings and cars, according to Palestinian officials and Yesh Din, an Israeli rights group. One Palestinian man — Jihad Abu Aliya — was killed during the clashes and at least 25 others wounded, according to the village mayor, Amin Abu Aliya.
• The Biden administration has said Israel must do more to clamp down on violence by extremist Israeli settlers, and it has imposed sanctions on several whom it said were involved in attacks on Palestinians. Israeli leaders denounced that move as interference in the country’s internal affairs.
• Human rights groups have long charged that the Israeli authorities do not do enough to prevent violent attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians, and that the perpetrators are rarely arrested. An Israeli police spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment as to whether any Israelis had been arrested during the incident.

Europa-Palestina:

(The Guardian)Ireland and Spain reiterate plan to form alliance to recognise State of Palestine

• The Irish taoiseach, Simon Harris, and Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, vowed on Friday to muster international support for a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine.
• “When we move forward, we would like to do so with as many others as possible to lend weight to the decision and to send the strongest message. The people of Israel deserve a secure and peaceful future. So do the people of Palestine. Equal sovereignty, equal respect, in a region where people of all faiths and all traditions live together in peace.”
• Earlier on Friday, Sánchez met Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, in Oslo and reiterated Madrid’s intention to recognise a Palestinian state by July.
• Since succeeding Leo Varadkar as taoiseach on Tuesday, Harris has underscored Ireland’s continued support for Palestinian statehood and an immediate ceasefire. In a meeting on Thursday with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, he reiterated a formal joint request made with Spain two months ago to review the Israel-EU association agreement, which carries human rights obligations.

Ucraina

(The Washington Post) Drones are crowding Ukraine’s skies, largely paralyzing battlefield

• So many drones patrol the skies over Ukraine’s front lines — hunting for any signs of movement — that Ukrainian and Russian troops have little ability to move on the battlefield without being spotted, and blown up.
• The surge in small drones in Ukraine has turned the area beyond either side of the zero line — normally known as “the gray zone” — into “the death zone,” said Oleksandr Nastenko, commander of Code 9.2, a drone unit in Ukraine’s 92nd brigade. Those who dare to move day or night under the prying eyes of enemy drones “are dead immediately,” he said.
• The technological advances probably have saved lives because drone pilots can work slightly farther from the zero — or contact — line than traditional infantry. But the saturation of drones, many with thermal cameras that work at night, has also shrunk the space where troops can move safely without being spotted — leading to high casualties and, in recent months, largely preventing either side from making major breakthroughs.
• These conditions — combined with widespread minefields and shortages of ammunition and soldiers — now make it virtually impossible for Ukraine to retake swaths of territory as it did in 2022.
• Russia, which has ample missile stocks and superior aviation power, capitalized on Ukraine’s ammunition shortages to seize the strategic eastern town of Avdiivka, and is now pushing to take more land. On Saturday, Ukraine’s commander in chief Oleksandr Syrsky warned that the situation on the eastern front had “significantly deteriorated.”
• With large-scale drone production underway in Russia, Ukraine is racing to manufacture more than a million drones this year in hopes that it will prevent further Russian gains.
• “The most challenging thing to figure out is if it’s Ukrainian or Russian drones,” Stanislav said. “When you see 10 drones in the sky there’s no way to understand if it’s our drone coming back after reconnaissance in Russian-controlled territory or if it’s their drone which is coming for reconnaissance or attacking Ukrainian-controlled territory.”

(The Washington Post) Russian troops advance in Ukraine as Kyiv runs low on air defenses

• As Ukrainian officials plead for more Western arms and a U.S. aid package remains stalled in Congress, Russia is advancing on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, seizing new territory and intensifying attacks to capture the town of Chasiv Yar and others in the Donetsk region.
• Ukraine’s worsening battlefield situation has coincided with Republicans in Congress blocking, for more than six months, $60 billion in security aid for Ukraine proposed by President Biden. During that time, Russia has regained the offensive initiative, initially by overtaking the town of Avdiivka in February.
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russia is preparing to mobilize hundreds of thousands more soldiers for another potential offensive in the northeast, toward Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Kharkiv in recent weeks has been pummeled repeatedly by missiles, and strikes on energy infrastructure have disrupted electrical service.
• Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. general overseeing military operations in Europe, warned U.S. lawmakers this week that Russia is expected to hold a 10-1 advantage on artillery shells “within weeks.”
• In recent days, the Russians had reached the outskirts of the town, he said, and he predicted that if Ukraine does not withdraw from Chasiv Yar the end of the month, fighting will probably already be taking place in the town’s center.
• Chichen, the Aidar deputy battalion commander, said that Chasiv Yar could be strategic for Russian soldiers because it has high ground that is convenient for launching drone attacks. Defending a canal that runs through the eastern edge of the town will be key for Ukraine, he said.

(Deutsche Welle) Russia claims it seized village near Avdiivka

• Moscow said it had captured a village near the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka.
• Pervomaiske lies to the south of the largely destroyed industrial town of Avdiivka, which Russia fully captured in the middle of February.
• The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine denied the Russian claims while acknowledging fierce fighting in the area.
• "Enemy assault groups reached outside the outskirts of the place at night. Bohdanivka is now under the control of the defense forces," Kyiv said.

(Deutsche Welle) Zelenskyy thanks Germany for new Patriot missile system

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked his German counterpart Olaf Scholz for committing to supply another Patriot air defense system and missiles.
• Ukraine says it needs additional air defense systems from the West to ward off an increase in Russia's missile and drone strikes in recent weeks.

Russia

Russia e Kazakistan:

(Deutsche Welle) Russia floods: Water level reaches new high in Orenburg

• On Saturday, the water level of the Ural River reached almost 12 meters (39 feet) in Orenburg — more than 2.5 meters above the level considered critical.
• Around 3,000 houses were underwater in the city alone.
• Meanwhile, across Russia, more than 120,000 people have been evacuated.
• Flooding also reached neighboring Kazakhstan, particularly the northern city of Petropavlovsk where power was affected.
• More than 103,000 people were evacuated across the country, according to the Kazakh Emergency Situations Ministry.

Europa

Cipro:

(Deutsche Welle) Cyprus suspends Syrian asylum applications

• Cyprus will no longer process asylum applications by those arriving from Syria, President Nikos Christodoulides announced, as a large number of people from the war-torn country continue to flee to the island nation.
• The decision comes days after President Christodoulides visited Lebanon to appeal to authorities to stop departures of migrant-laden boats from their shores.
• Lebanon, which is coping with a crippling economic crisis since 2019, hosts some 805,000 UN-registered Syrian refugees, many of whom have escaped the civil war in Syria which has entered its 14th year. According to UN's refugee agency, 90% of these live in poverty.
• Lebanese officials estimate the actual number is far higher, ranging between 1.5 and 2 million.
• A growing number of these refugees are now aiming for Cyprus.
• More than 4,000 migrants and refugees have arrived in Cyprus since the beginning of this year, compared to only 78 in the first quarter of 2023.
• Based on the size of its population, Cyprus takes in by far the largest share of migrants in the European Union.

Politica internazionale

America Latina

Messico:

(New York Times) Mexico’s 2024 General Election: What to Know

• Mexico’s vote on June 2 will be a landmark election in several ways.
• It will be the country’s largest election in terms of voters and seats. 
• And for the first time in the country’s history, Mexico will elect a female president, as the top two candidates running for the office are women.
• President Andrés Manuel López Obrador cannot run again under the constitution, and he has strongly backed his protégée and fellow Morena party member, Claudia Sheinbaum, who pledges to continue the current leader’s agenda. Her primary opponent is Xóchitl Gálvez, a strong critic of the López Obrador administration who vows to return checks and balances to government.
• The winner will be responsible for nominating a new Supreme Court judge.
• Voters see rising cartel violence as a top election issue.
• Corruption is another major issue for voters. 
• There is also a migration crisis. Even as Mexico has increased enforcement and detained more migrants than it has in at least two decades, high numbers of people continue to pass through its southern border to try to reach the United States.

Medio Oriente

Libano:

(Deutsche Welle) Lebanon: Killing of official unleashes fury against Syrians

• The atmosphere across Lebanon is heated following this week's killing of Pascal Suleiman, a local politician belonging to the Christian nationalist Lebanese Forces party.
• On Sunday, Suleiman was kidnapped and killed near Byblos, some 38 kilometers (23 miles) north of Lebanon's capital, Beirut. On Monday, his body was found across the border in Syria.
• Some sections of the population, however, have started blaming the country's large contingent of Syrian refugees.
• "The Lebanese Forces are hostile to Syrian refugees, whose protracted presence threatens the prominence of Christian parties in Lebanon's politics," said Kelly Petillo, a Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "And they also consider Hezbollah to be public enemy No. 1."
• So far, the authorities have yet to present the outcome of the investigation that should determine if Suleiman was the victim of a Syrian carjacking gang — seven Syrians have been taken into custody and the body was found in Syria — if his death was politically motivated, or if Suleiman's role as head of IT at Byblos Bank, one of the country's largest banks, had anything to do with the murder.

Africa

Niger: 

(New York Times) Protesters in Niger Call for U.S. Military Exit as Russian Force Arrives

• Thousands of protesters gathered in the capital of Niger on Saturday called for the withdrawal of U.S. armed forces personnel stationed in the West African nation, only days after Russia delivered its own set of military equipment and instructors to the country’s military.
• About 1,000 American military personnel are stationed at a remote drone base in Niger’s desert, from which they fly drones tracking movements of extremist groups in Niger and throughout the region.
• But the United States suspended its military cooperation with Niger’s military last summer, when mutinous soldiers seized power in the country. That rupture has kept the drones grounded and the troops inactive. Last month, Niger ordered the U.S. troops to leave, declaring their presence illegal.
• A U.S. State Department spokesman said that America remained in discussions with Niger’s authorities about its military presence and cooperation in the country.
• But the sudden arrival of 100 Russian instructors and an air-defense system in Niger this past week will make the prospect of cooperation in the short-term even more uncertain. According to Russia’s state-owned news outlet Ria Novosti, the Russian personnel are part of Africa Corps, the new paramilitary structure intended to take the place of the Wagner group, the military company whose mercenaries and operations spread in Africa under the leadership of its former leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin.
• The demonstrators in the capital Niamey on Saturday waved Russian flags as well as those of Burkina Faso and Mali, two neighboring countries where military-led governments have also called in Russian assistance to help fight insurgents affiliated with the Islamic State and Al Qaeda.